Decade of lows broken up by occasional highlights

The first 10 years of the new millennium — already coined the “Big Zero” decade by economist Paul Krugman and the “Uh-Oh” decade by Miami Herald columnist Leonard Pitts Jr. — likely will not be remembered as the best of times, especially in America.

Terrorism, mass shootings, scandals, recession . . . the list goes on.

With 9/11 toward the start, a financial crash toward the end, and Hurricane Katrina in the middle, it was a decade of low points broken up by an occasional highlight.

But if nothing else, it gives us hope that the “terrible teens” will be anything but.

Dan Roberts, an associate professor of history and liberal arts at the University of Richmond and host of the “A Moment in Time” show on National Public Radio, hopes America has taken some lessons away from the tough times.

“We’re going to have to be citizens of the world,“ he said. “Even though we remain the one superpower that can act independently, we’re learning increasingly that that is counterproductive if we want to accomplish our goals and do business in the world.“

He was encouraged to see that Americans are “coming to grips with the fact that we need to be more artful and smarter in the use of the resources we have.“

With regard to the immediate future, of course, the economy is on everyone’s mind.

Coming out of a deep hole, 2010 will be more of a transition year, offered Christine Chmura, president and chief economist at Chmura Economics & Analytics, a Richmond-based forecasting firm.

“Overall, the economy is recovering at a modest pace,“ she said, adding that the job market will likely see some recovery in the second half of the year.

“On the positive side, we are looking for housing activity to continue to recover,“ she said. The firm foresees building permits in Virginia rising 8.7 percent in 2010 after a decline of nearly 20 percent in 2009, while the Richmond area will see a smaller 3 percent gain after a decline of 35 percent in 2009.

“I don’t see a boom, but I do see most of the world recovering and the U.S. recovering, so things will be better,“ added A. Marshall Acuff Jr., managing director and chairman of the investment committee at Cary Street Partners in Richmond.

Acuff is also bullish on the stock market, in part because all the cost-cutting measures that businesses implemented in 2009 should help their profits in 2010, which in turn should help propel stocks.

But long-term issues include a trend toward rising interest rates, reflecting possible inflationary pressures that may intensify going forward.

“Consequently, the stock market in the years ahead probably is going to be in a kind of up-and-down pattern, very similar to what occurred between 1966 and 1982, and between 1929 and 1950,“ he said.

Some are less convinced that things are turning around at all.

“I am an optimist and I try to look on the bright side of everything, but frankly, at this point, I just do not see the light at the end of the tunnel,“ said John Cox, whose company, Cox Transportation, provides trucking from the West Coast to the East Coast.

Cox, who was elected to the Virginia House of Delegates this year, said he is even more worried about the long-term implications of the national debt.

“At a time when we are in a deep recession, we are printing money and spending money we don’t have and mortgaging our kids’ and grandkids’ future,“ he said.

Politically, Virginia’s status as a purple or swing state will continue and presidential elections will focus on Virginia as they did in 2008, said Stephen Farnsworth, a political commentator at George Mason University.

“Virginia is a great state to watch if you like politics,“ he said.

Though Gov.-elect Bob McDonnell has yet to take office, those with gubernatorial ambitions are surely eyeing the 2013 election.

“I think [Lt. Gov.] Bill Bolling figures it will be his turn, but [Attorney General-elect] Ken Cuccinelli may have other ideas,“ Farnsworth said. “For the Democrats, it could be a wide-open competition. It wouldn’t surprise me if Tim Kaine ran again in 2013.“

As for the big-picture outlook, Glen Hiemstra, founder of Seattle-based Futurist.com, sees perhaps the biggest development of the next decade as the “Age Wave” brought on by baby boomers reaching retirement age and the influence it will have on jobs, transportation, housing, Social Security and other areas.

“If you want to see the future circa 2020, go to Florida and look around,“ he said.

Roberts added that two things are almost certain for America.

“We’re going to have to deal — and deal rather directly and firmly — with religious extremism and how that interacts with international relations,“ he said.

“And in the United States, I think we’re going to finally catch up to the rest of the industrialized world with something approximating universal health care.“

Wesley P. Hester and John Reid Blackwell are staff writers for the Richmond Times-Dispatch.