Video: Tornado warnings - are we paying attention?

Tornado season is underway in Central Alabama now, in fact, the heart of severe weather season is upon us.

Tornado season lasts till the end of May, but many of our most deadly and devastating storms have historically hit between mid-March and the third week of April.

This busy time of the year weather-wise, can be frightening and confusing.

NBC13 HD Chief Meteorologist Jerry Tracey explains the different types of tornado warnings issued by the National Weather Service, and why Alabama EMA officials are concerned that the public could become complacent about heeding them.

When you hear the sound of a tornado siren, you have a decision to make.

Many people seek out a safe place of shelter.  Schools and some businesses take cover as a matter of police, but some others choose to ignore the warnings.

Even though Josie Capuano lived through a tornado when she was a child, she believes hearing multiple warnings issued over a span of hours leads to a feeling of apathy.
Other people said they appreciate getting a warning, but continuous notifications become annoying when nothing dangerous seems to happen.

They just keep doing whatever it is they are doing, figuring they have lived through other tornado warnings in the past, so why should another one be any different?  That has officials concerned.

Brock Long, Director of Alabama’s EMA said, “Complacency and desensitizing of the public is our number one problem.“

It is a problem because of something we all know.  Just because a tornado warning is issued, does not mean you get a tornado on the ground.  Tornado forecasting is an inexact science, just like all weather forecasting, and indeed all forecasting of future events.

Okay, we have all heard the sirens and had our lives interrupted by the warnings.  So are we getting any better at forecasting tornadoes?

The National Weather Service issues all severe weather warnings, so Jerry Tracey put the question to Jim Stefkovich, Meteorologist in Charge of the Birmingham office.  He said, “We have looked at the past twenty years here in Alabama, and we have found that the probability of detection is going up, we are steadily increasing our false alarm rate is decreasing, so we are issuing less false warnings.”

A warning is issued, so does a tornado hit?

The probability of detection has improved dramatically for warnings issued by the Birmingham office of the National Weather Service in the past 20 odd years, going from just over 40% in 1986 to nearly 80% today.  That means that we get warnings for 4 out of 5 tornadoes

As a Meteorologist, Jerry Tracey believes that is very impressive.

Keep in mind, tornados which are not forecasted are almost always the small, relatively weak type, like the one that hit Chelsea in Shelby County on February 27th.

That tornado was only 15 to 20 feet wide, and was on the ground for less than 30 seconds.  You have heard the expression, “flying under the radar screen.“  A storm that small was truly under the radar beam.

The story is not as encouraging for the false alarm rate, though there has been a bit of improvement there as well.

Here are the facts:  The false alarm rate stood at 88% in 1986, and has declined slightly to 83% today.

The meteorological advancements needed to significantly improve the false alarm rate may not be available for some time.

Shawn Manzano lives in Jefferson County, but his parents live in Shelby County.  He said, “I really need to know exactly where a tornado is because I travel a lot, and I go to my parents’ house a lot.  I don’t want to drive into a dangerous weather situation.  So before I get on the road, I need to know where it’s safe and if I should wait to leave.“

Josie Capuano said, “There needs to be some kind of system where we know the difference between tornadoes happening in the surrounding area, versus there’s a tornado in your area, you need to be running for cover.“

There may be another way to tackle the whole problem of complacency, by shrinking the area warned, therefore limiting the number of people who are warned.  That’s where the new storm-based or polygon warnings come in. 

Jim Stefkovich said, “We now issue polygonal warnings instead of a warning for an entire county.  We’ll just issue that area of the county we think is going to be affected by the storm, that will get the severe weather, and the people will notice it.“

Of course, NBC13 HD always communicates the polygonal warnings to its viewers, and will continue to do so. 

Jerry Tracey also highly recommends that everyone have a weather radio in their home and business.